Since the City of Buffalo’s inception, it has been impacted by Lake Erie storm surges, including the infamous 1844 event that topped a 14-foot seawall and caused extensive loss of life and property along the City’s waterfront. These surges are caused by powerful winter storms blowing along the long axis of Lake Erie and providing a low atmospheric pressure environment, which together drive water towards the east end of Lake Erie and the City of Buffalo waterfront. Climate change may increase the City of Buffalo’s exposure to storm surges by reducing ice coverage, which would otherwise suppress storm surges, and by increasing Lake Erie water levels, which reduces the freeboard available to accommodate surges when they occur.
The City of Buffalo Coastal Resiliency Study (BCRS) is a comprehensive effort to evaluate flood risks and to identify solutions to protect public and private assets. It grew out of the Imagine LaSalle initiative, a community-driven program to develop a resilient design for LaSalle Park (now called Ralph Wilson Park), which often takes the brunt of Lake Erie storm surges. The success of that program; major Lake Erie storm surges in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022; as well as concern for climate change underscored the need to broaden that community-driven framework to the City of Buffalo waterfront.
The BCRS is supported by a lake-wide hydrodynamic model which informs a high-resolution (4 m) over- bank flood model as well as a sewer backup model. This approach enables evaluation of climate change scenarios on Lake Erie surges while also enabling detailed understanding of flooding outcomes at the neighborhood scale. The BCRS models complement ongoing modeling and coastal assessments by filling a gap in the types and scale of information needed.
The modeling is supported by extensive review of historical data and literature, including Lake Erie water levels, meteorological data, the latest climate change research and projections of lake conditions, Buffalo River and Scajaquada Creek discharge data, regional and local bathymetric and topographic surveys, land-use data, infrastructure databases, proposed land development plans, and evidence of historical flooding. Ten simulation scenarios evaluated past and projected flood risk. Extreme water levels were selected based on a joint-probability analysis of measured surge and static lake levels for return periods ranging from 1- to 500-years. Four of the scenarios include climate change considerations for the 2050- and 2080-time horizons.
Information gained from modeling will be used to support an asset risk assessment, enabling stakeholder-driven selection of project priority areas and development of shoreline resiliency projects. The BCRS is supported by a GIS-based online presence, creative use of time-lapse imagery, and virtual reality tools to help stakeholders understand Lake Erie storm surges and their impacts.
