Great Lakes coastal wetlands are diverse and dynamic ecosystems that have developed to function under disturbances from both terrestrial and aquatic systems. Climate change is projected to alter these disturbances outside their historical ranges, subjecting coastal wetlands to warmer temperatures, more extreme precipitation events, greater variability in lake levels, and increased wind and wave action. These anticipated changes pose as an uncertain risk to coastal wetland habitats and are therefore challenging for natural resource managers, who must contend with limited resources for wetland management, preservation, and adaptation efforts. Using Lake Superior as a pilot, we are developing a framework to quantify the relative sensitivity of Great Lakes coastal wetland habitats to the anticipated effects of climate change. Data from the Coastal Wetlands Monitoring Program (CWMP) and state databases are used in conjunction with published literature, the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI), and expert opinion of regional and state-wide wetland professionals to assign sensitivity scores to each wetland. Here, we present the frameworks developed and share initial sensitivity rankings for vegetation, fish, and bird habitats of coastal wetlands within the Lake Superior basin of Wisconsin. By combining sensitivity and adaptive capacity scores, estimates of wetland resiliency will assist in the prioritization of coastal wetland management efforts and inform site-specific adaptation strategies, which can then be replicated on other Great Lakes systems.
